2008년 5월 4일 일요일

Risk assessment

I know I am behind schedule in writing blog posts. Desperate, here is a quick translation of a short piece I wrote in Korean.

Risk assessment

In assessing risks, it is meaningless to assert that the risk of A is high because some B has the high probability of causing A. The high probability of causing A should be considered together with the probability of B itself.

Here is an example of the fallacy:

Mad cow disease has the high probability of causing death. Therefore, it is highly probable to die from mad cow disease.

Compare with:

Mad cow disease has the high probability of causing death. However, mad cow disease is rare. Therefore, it is unlikely to die from mad cow disease.

댓글 1개:

James :

Sounds like you have been spending time reassuring people who are worried about the risk of mad cow disease from U.S. beef, lately in the news.

I recommend making life better for the cows and safer for humans by avoiding the issue altogether: consider vegetarianism.