I know I am behind schedule in writing blog posts. Desperate, here is a quick translation of a short piece I wrote in Korean.
Risk assessment
In assessing risks, it is meaningless to assert that the risk of A is high because some B has the high probability of causing A. The high probability of causing A should be considered together with the probability of B itself.
Here is an example of the fallacy:
Mad cow disease has the high probability of causing death. Therefore, it is highly probable to die from mad cow disease.
Compare with:
Mad cow disease has the high probability of causing death. However, mad cow disease is rare. Therefore, it is unlikely to die from mad cow disease.
Sounds like you have been spending time reassuring people who are worried about the risk of mad cow disease from U.S. beef, lately in the news.
답글삭제I recommend making life better for the cows and safer for humans by avoiding the issue altogether: consider vegetarianism.